“ Dharma Hall 2020 Ten trends in science and technology ” Official release !
last year , Our forecast of technological trends is becoming a reality ：AI The rise of chips , The birth of smart city ,5G New application scenarios …… New decade of science and technology ,AI, chip , cloud computing , Blockchain , Industrial Internet , Quantum computing and other fields , There will be many exciting and disruptive technological innovations .
The world is being changed by technology , Together fine ：
【 Trend one 】
The evolution of artificial intelligence from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence
Artificial intelligence is already in place “ hear , say , see ” The field of perceptual intelligence has reached or surpassed the human level , But external knowledge is needed , The field of cognitive intelligence is still in its infancy . Cognitive intelligence from cognitive psychology , Inspiration from brain science and human social history , And combined with cross domain knowledge map , Causal reasoning , Continuous learning and other technologies , Establish an effective mechanism to acquire and express knowledge stably , Let knowledge be understood and used by machines , Key breakthrough from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence .
【 Trend two 】
Breakthrough in integration of computing and storage AI Computational bottleneck
Separation of storage and computing in von Neumann architecture , It is no longer suitable for data-driven artificial intelligence applications . The bottleneck of computing power and power consumption caused by frequent data handling has become a limiting factor for the exploration of more advanced algorithms . The in memory computing architecture, which is similar to the brain nerve structure, integrates the data storage unit and the computing unit , Can significantly reduce data handling , Greatly improve computing parallelism and energy efficiency . Innovation in hardware architecture of integration of computing and storage , Will break through AI Computational bottleneck .
【 Trend 3 】
Super convergence of industrial Internet
5G,IoT equipment , cloud computing , The rapid development of edge computing will promote the super convergence of industrial Internet , Realization of industrial control system , Intelligent integration of communication system and information system . Manufacturing enterprises will realize equipment automation , Transportation automation and scheduling automation , Then flexible manufacturing is realized , At the same time, the upstream and downstream manufacturing lines of the factory can be adjusted and coordinated in real time . This will greatly improve the production efficiency of the factory and the profitability of the enterprise . For industrial industries with output value of several trillion or even hundreds of trillion , increase 5%-10% The efficiency of , It will generate trillions of yuan in value .
【 Trend four 】
Large scale collaboration between machines is possible
Traditional single agent can not meet the real-time perception of large-scale intelligent devices , policy decision .
Collaborative perception technology of Internet of things ,5G The development of communication technology will realize the cooperation among multiple agents —— Machines cooperate with each other , Compete with each other to accomplish the goal and task together .
Swarm intelligence brought by multi-agent cooperation will further enlarge the value of intelligent system ：
Large scale intelligent traffic light dispatching will realize dynamic real-time adjustment , Efficient cooperation of warehouse robots for goods sorting , Driverless vehicles can sense the overall road conditions , Group UAV cooperation will effectively get through the last kilometer distribution .
【 Trend 5 】
Modularization reduces the threshold of chip design
Traditional chip design patterns cannot cope with rapid iteration efficiently , Demand for customized and fragmented chips . with RISC-V Is the representative open instruction set and its corresponding open source SoC chip design , High level abstract hardware description language and based on IP Design method of templated chip based on FPGA , It promotes the rapid development of chip agile design method and open source chip ecology . in addition , Based on pellets （chiplet） The modular design method uses advanced packaging to integrate different functions “ Chip module ” Packaged together , You can skip the tape to quickly customize a chip that meets the application requirements , Further accelerated the delivery of chips .
【 Trend six 】
Large scale production level blockchain application will enter the public
Blockchain BaaS(Blockchain asa
Service) Service will further reduce the threshold for enterprises to apply blockchain technology , End designed for blockchain , cloud , All kinds of hardware chips for solidifying core algorithms will emerge as the times require , Anchoring physical world assets and chain assets , Further expand the boundary of value Internet , Realize ten thousand chain interconnection . A large number of innovative blockchain application scenarios and cross industry will emerge in the future , Multi dimensional cooperation across ecology , Large scale production level blockchain applications with daily life of more than 10 million will enter the public .
【 Trend 7 】
Quantum computing enters a critical period
2019 year ,“ Quantum hegemony ” The debate makes quantum computing the focus of science and technology in the world again . Achievements of superconducting quantum computing chips , It enhances the industry's optimistic expectation of superconducting route and the realization pace of large-scale quantum computing .2020 The field of quantum computing will experience a further increase in investment in , Competition intensifies , The stage of accelerating industrialization and enriching ecology . As the two most critical technical milestones , Fault tolerant quantum computing and demonstration of practical quantum advantage will be the turning point of quantum computing . In the next few years , It will be a very difficult task to achieve any of them , Quantum computing will enter a critical period of Technology .
【 Trend eight 】
New materials promote semiconductor device innovation
Under the dual pressure of Moore's law slowing down and the explosion of computing power and storage demand , It is difficult for the classic transistors based on silicon to maintain the sustainable development of semiconductor industry , Major semiconductor manufacturers 3 There is no clear answer to the direction of chips below nanometers . New materials will achieve new logic through a new physical mechanism , Storage and interconnection concepts and devices , Promoting the innovation of semiconductor industry . for example , Topological insulator , Two dimensional superconductors can realize lossless electron and spin transport , It can be the foundation of new high-performance logic and interconnection devices ; New magnetic materials and new resistive materials can bring high performance magnetic memory, such as SOT-MRAM And resistive memory .
【 Trend 9 】
Data privacy protection AI Technology will accelerate landing
The cost of compliance generated by data flow is increasing . use AI Technology to protect data privacy is becoming a new technology hotspot , It can ensure the data security and privacy of all parties at the same time , Joint users implement specific computing , To solve the problem of data island and low reliability of data sharing , Realize the value of data .
【 Trend 10 】
Cloud becomes IT The center of technological innovation
With the development of cloud technology , The cloud has far exceeded IT Scope of infrastructure , It's becoming everything IT The center of technological innovation . Cloud has penetrated new chips , New database , Self driven adaptive network , big data ,AI, Internet of things , Blockchain , Quantum computing the whole IT Technical link , At the same time, server free computing is derived , Cloud native software architecture , Integrated design of software and hardware , Intelligent automation operation and maintenance and other new technical modes , The cloud is redefining IT Everything . Generalized cloud , Is constantly bringing new IT Technology becomes a service within reach , Become the infrastructure of the entire digital economy .
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